Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Selling SOEs

I cannot believe the stupidity of some of the comments against selling SOEs and am concerned the proponents don't counter them.  I am a financial consultant and have valued and sold many companies and divisions over the years so have some expertise here.  One of the common complaints (and Labour also use the argument) is that by selling, we will forego the dividends we currently receive from these SOEs. 

What do people think a company is worth?  I'll tell you, it is worth the net present value of the free cash flow that the company is forecast to generate over its foreseeable life.  And that is what you would sell a company for unless you are an idiot.  So you would receive the value today of the total possible future dividends.  Invest those sale proceeds and you should be able to generate at least similar levels of income or alternatively pay off debt and save interest bills.

The real issue is whether there are better alternatives to the government being invested in electricity companies and a coal company when we have a desperate need to get our debt down and to build infrastructure to kick us into the 21st century.  Governments are not there to assume business risks that private enterprise is well able and better placed to incur.

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